Dependency ratio
The number of children and older people in a population, compared with the number of working-age people who might support them.
In short
A high dependency ratio means relatively few working-age people per dependent. It doesn't say anything about income or actual support, only about age structure.
How it's calculated
Working-age is usually defined as 15 to 64. Everyone younger or older counts as a dependent. The ratio is often split into a youth and an old-age component, because the two have very different policy implications — young dependents become workers, while old dependents generally do not.
Typical values
Why it matters here
A country's ridgeline can be rising for two very different reasons: a young population having children (pushing the youth ratio up), or a population ageing in place (pushing the old-age ratio up). Countries with a young age structure, like Nigeria, tend to have room to keep growing even if birth rates fall; countries already ageing, like Russia, feel the effects of low fertility much sooner.
The direction of a country's dependency ratio over time is a good leading indicator of future growth pressure. When the youth ratio falls and the old-age ratio is still low, a country passes through a window sometimes called the demographic dividend — a period when the working-age share is at its largest and economic output per person can grow quickly. The UNFPA's demographic dividend overview explains the conditions under which countries benefit from this window.
Limits of the measure
The age bands used (0–14 and 65+) are conventions, not universal truths. In high-income countries, many people work past 65 and many young adults are in education past 25. A fixed boundary misses these realities. Some demographers use 20–69 as the working-age band, or compute an economic dependency ratio based on actual employment rather than age. The standard measure is still useful for cross-country comparison, but it should not be read as a direct measure of economic pressure.
Frequently asked questions
What is the dependency ratio?
The dependency ratio is the number of people outside typical working age — usually under 15 and over 64 — divided by the number of working-age people (15 to 64), multiplied by 100. A ratio of 50 means there are 50 dependents for every 100 workers. Current data by country is available from the World Bank's age dependency ratio indicator.
What is the difference between youth and old-age dependency?
Youth dependency measures children (0–14) relative to the working-age population. Old-age dependency measures people aged 65 and over against the same base. High youth dependency is typical of fast-growing countries with high fertility; high old-age dependency is typical of countries with low fertility and longer life expectancy.
What is a demographic dividend?
A demographic dividend occurs when falling fertility leads to a temporary period where the working-age share of the population is unusually large relative to dependents. This can boost per-capita economic output, but only if employment and investment conditions are right. Many East Asian economies benefited from this window in the late 20th century. The World Bank has documented the conditions under which countries capture — or miss — this window.
Why is a high old-age dependency ratio a concern?
A rising old-age dependency ratio means fewer workers are available to fund pension systems, healthcare, and elder care. Countries with very low fertility, like Japan and several European nations, face the greatest pressure because their working-age share is already shrinking while the share of older people keeps growing. The UN World Population Ageing 2023 report analyses these pressures by region in detail.