Glossary term
Urban population
The share of a country's population living in urban areas — cities, towns, and settlements meeting a minimum size or density threshold defined by national statistics offices. The global urbanisation rate crossed 50% in 2007 and is projected to reach 68% by 2050, adding 2.5 billion urban residents mostly in Africa and Asia.
What counts as "urban"?
There is no single international definition of urban. Most national statistical agencies use a combination of population size and density thresholds. France classifies settlements of 2,000+ as urban; Japan uses 50,000. Some countries use administrative designation — any locality with town or city status. This inconsistency makes cross-country comparisons imprecise.
The UN-Habitat and the EU Global Human Settlement Layer have developed harmonised satellite-based urban extent maps that bypass national definitions — defining "urban" by built-up area, population density, and functional connectivity. These methods are increasingly used for international comparisons and SDG monitoring. World Bank urban data draws on both national and satellite-based definitions.
The 2007 tipping point and what came after
In 2007, for the first time in human history, more people lived in urban areas than in rural ones. This crossing was more symbolic than sudden — it had been approaching for decades — but it marked a civilisational shift. Cities now produce about 80% of global GDP, consume two-thirds of global energy, and emit roughly 70% of greenhouse gases, according to research presented at the World Urban Forum 2022.
The next 2.5 billion urban residents — expected by 2050 — will arrive almost entirely in Africa and Asia. In Africa, cities are growing faster than any other region in history. Lagos could exceed 30 million by 2035; Kinshasa 25 million. This speed of growth creates infrastructure deficits — housing, water, sanitation, transport — that compound over time if not addressed proactively.
Urbanisation and fertility — a two-way relationship
Urban fertility is consistently lower than rural fertility in every country and region. Urban women typically have higher education, more labour market participation, higher housing costs, and later marriage — all factors associated with lower TFR. In sub-Saharan Africa, urban TFR averages roughly 3.5 vs a rural average above 5.5.
This means urbanisation is itself a driver of the demographic transition. As more Africans move to cities — drawn by economic opportunity — national fertility rates will fall even without targeted family-planning programmes. This is sometimes called the "urban fertility dividend" — urbanisation does part of the work that policy otherwise would.
However, the relationship runs in both directions. High natural increase in urban areas — even at lower TFRs, because the base population is large and young — means African cities will grow regardless of migration from rural areas. UN World Urbanisation Prospects 2022 projects that natural increase will account for more than half of African urban growth through 2035.
Informal settlements: the urbanisation debt
About 1.1 billion people — roughly one in four urban residents worldwide — live in informal settlements lacking secure tenure, durable housing, clean water, or sanitation, according to UN-Habitat. The global share has fallen over time, but the absolute count is rising because urban growth outpaces upgrading programmes in low-income countries. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest proportion of urban residents in slums: above 50% in many cities.
SDG 11 — Sustainable Cities and Communities — targets adequate, safe, and affordable housing for all by 2030. Progress reviews at the World Urban Forum 2022 found this target firmly off track in low-income countries. Climate change is compounding the challenge, as informal settlements in flood plains and coastal zones face rising displacement risk — see our analysis of climate migration projections.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as an urban population?
The definition of "urban" varies by country. Most national statistical agencies use a population size threshold (e.g., 2,000 or 5,000 residents) combined with density criteria. Some include administrative status. The EU Global Human Settlement Layer offers a harmonised satellite-based alternative for cross-country comparisons.
When did the world become majority urban?
The world crossed the 50% urban threshold around 2007 — the first time in human history that more people lived in cities than in rural areas. The UN World Urbanisation Prospects estimates global urbanisation at approximately 56% in 2024, projected to reach 68% by 2050.
Is Africa still majority rural?
Yes. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently about 42% urban — the least urbanised major region in the world. However, it is also urbanising fastest in absolute terms. Lagos, Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam, and Nairobi are projected to rank among the world's 20 largest cities by 2050.
How does urbanisation affect population growth?
Urban fertility is consistently lower than rural fertility everywhere. As urbanisation increases, it exerts downward pressure on national TFRs. However, rapid urbanisation creates a large young urban population that can produce high natural increase even at lower TFRs — which is why many African cities are growing fast despite modest fertility declines.